Australian vertebrate hosts of Japanese encephalitis virus; a review of the evidence.

Japanese Encephalitis Virus (JEV) transmission in temperate Australia has underscored a critical need to characterise transmission pathways and identify probable hosts of infection within the country. This systematic review consolidates existing research on the vertebrate hosts of JEV that are known to exist in Australia. Specifically, we aim to identify probable species for JEV transmission, their potential role as either a spillover or maintenance host and identify critical knowledge gaps. Data were extracted from studies involving experimental infection, seroprevalence, and virus isolation and were available for 22 vertebrate species known to reside in Australia. A host competence score was calculated to assess the potential for a given species to infect JEV vectors and to quantity their possible role in JEV transmission. Based on the host competence score and ecology of each species, we find ardeid birds, feral pigs, and flying foxes have potential as maintenance hosts for JEV in the Australian context. We also note that brushtail possums and domestic pigs have potential as spillover hosts under certain outbreak conditions. However, evidence to confirm these roles in localized transmission or outbreaks is sparse, emphasizing the need for further targeted research. This review provides a foundation for future investigations into JEV transmission in Australia, advocating for enhanced surveillance and standardized research methodologies to better understand and mitigate the virus's impact.

Intergenomic signatures of coevolution between Tasmanian devils and an infectious cancer.

Coevolution is common and frequently governs host-pathogen interaction outcomes. Phenotypes underlying these interactions often manifest as the combined products of the genomes of interacting species, yet traditional quantitative trait mapping approaches ignore these intergenomic interactions. Devil facial tumor disease (DFTD), an infectious cancer afflicting Tasmanian devils (Sarcophilus harrisii), has decimated devil populations due to universal host susceptibility and a fatality rate approaching 100%. Here, we used a recently developed joint genome-wide association study (i.e., co-GWAS) approach, 15 y of mark-recapture data, and 960 genomes to identify intergenomic signatures of coevolution between devils and DFTD. Using a traditional GWA approach, we found that both devil and DFTD genomes explained a substantial proportion of variance in how quickly susceptible devils became infected, although genomic architectures differed across devils and DFTD; the devil genome had fewer loci of large effect whereas the DFTD genome had a more polygenic architecture. Using a co-GWA approach, devil-DFTD intergenomic interactions explained ~3× more variation in how quickly susceptible devils became infected than either genome alone, and the top genotype-by-genotype interactions were significantly enriched for cancer genes and signatures of selection. A devil regulatory mutation was associated with differential expression of a candidate cancer gene and showed putative allele matching effects with two DFTD coding sequence variants. Our results highlight the need to account for intergenomic interactions when investigating host-pathogen (co)evolution and emphasize the importance of such interactions when considering devil management strategies.

Chytridiomycosis causes high amphibian mortality prior to the completion of metamorphosis.

Amphibian populations are undergoing extensive declines globally. The fungal disease chytridiomycosis, caused by the pathogenic fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), is a primary contributor to these declines. The amphibian metamorphic stages (Gosner stages 42-46) are particularly vulnerable to a range of stressors, including Bd. Despite this, studies that explicitly examine host response to chytridiomycosis throughout the metamorphic stages are lacking. We aimed to determine how Bd exposure during the larval stages impacts metamorphic development and infection progression in the endangered Fleay's barred frog (Mixophyes fleayi). We exposed M. fleayi to Bd during pro-metamorphosis (Gosner stages 35-38) and monitored infection dynamics throughout metamorphosis. We took weekly morphological measurements (weight, total body length, snout-vent-length and Gosner stage) and quantified Bd load using qPCR. While we observed minimal impact of Bd infection on animal growth and development, Bd load varied throughout ontogeny, with an infection load plateau during the tadpole stages (Gosner stages 35-41) and temporary infection clearance at Gosner stage 42. Bd load increased exponentially between Gosner stages 42 and 45, with most exposed animals becoming moribund at Gosner stage 45, prior to the completion of metamorphosis. There was variability in infection outcome of exposed individuals, with a subgroup of animals (n = 5/29) apparently clearing their infection while the majority (n = 21/29) became moribund with high infection burdens. This study demonstrates the role that metamorphic restructuring plays in shaping Bd infection dynamics and raises the concern that substantial Bd-associated mortality could be overlooked in the field due to the often cryptic nature of these latter metamorphic stages. We recommend future studies that directly examine the host immune response to Bd infection throughout metamorphosis, incorporating histological and molecular methods to elucidate the mechanisms responsible for the observed trends.

Amphibian infection tolerance to chytridiomycosis.

Animal defences against infection involve two distinct but complementary mechanisms: tolerance and resistance. Tolerance measures the animal's ability to limit detrimental effects from a given infection, whereas resistance is the ability to limit the intensity of that infection. Tolerance is a valuable defence for highly prevalent, persistent or endemic infections where mitigation strategies based on traditional resistance mechanisms are less effective or evolutionarily stable. Selective breeding of amphibians for enhanced tolerance to Batrachochytrium spp. has been suggested as a strategy for mitigating the impacts of the fungal disease, chytridiomycosis. Here, we define infection tolerance and resistance in the context of chytridiomycosis, present evidence for variation in tolerance to chytridiomycosis, and explore epidemiological, ecological and evolutionary implications of tolerance to chytridiomycosis. We found that exposure risk and environmental moderation of infection burdens are major confounders of resistance and tolerance, chytridiomycosis is primarily characterized by variation in constitutive rather than adaptive resistance, tolerance is epidemiologically important in driving pathogen spread and maintenance, heterogeneity of tolerance leads to ecological trade-offs, and natural selection for resistance and tolerance is likely to be dilute. Improving our understanding of infection tolerance broadens our capacity for mitigating the ongoing impacts of emerging infectious diseases such as chytridiomycosis. This article is part of the theme issue 'Amphibian immunity: stress, disease and ecoimmunology'.

Limited impact of chytridiomycosis on juvenile frogs in a recovered species.

The amphibian chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) has caused catastrophic frog declines on several continents, but disease outcome is mediated by a number of factors. Host life stage is an important consideration and many studies have highlighted the vulnerability of recently metamorphosed or juvenile frogs compared to adults. The majority of these studies have taken place in a laboratory setting, and there is a general paucity of longitudinal field studies investigating the influence of life stage on disease outcome. In this study, we assessed the effect of endemic Bd on juvenile Mixophyes fleayi (Fleay's barred frog) in subtropical eastern Australian rainforest. Using photographic mark-recapture, we made 386 captures of 116 individuals and investigated the effect of Bd infection intensity on the apparent mortality rates of frogs using a multievent model correcting for infection state misclassification. We found that neither Bd infection status nor infection intensity predicted mortality in juvenile frogs, counter to the expectation that early life stages are more vulnerable to disease, despite average high infection prevalence (0.35, 95% HDPI [0.14, 0.52]). Additionally, we found that observed infection prevalence and intensity were somewhat lower for juveniles than adults. Our results indicate that in this Bd-recovered species, the realized impacts of chytridiomycosis on juveniles were apparently low, likely resulting in high recruitment contributing to population stability. We highlight the importance of investigating factors relating to disease outcome in a field setting and make recommendations for future studies.

Recovered frog populations coexist with endemic Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis despite load-dependent mortality.

Novel infectious diseases, particularly those caused by fungal pathogens, pose considerable risks to global biodiversity. The amphibian chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, Bd) has demonstrated the scale of the threat, having caused the greatest recorded loss of vertebrate biodiversity attributable to a pathogen. Despite catastrophic declines on several continents, many affected species have experienced population recoveries after epidemics. However, the potential ongoing threat of endemic Bd in these recovered or recovering populations is still poorly understood. We investigated the threat of endemic Bd to frog populations that recovered after initial precipitous declines, focusing on the endangered rainforest frog Mixophyes fleayi. We conducted extensive field surveys over 4 years at three independent sites in eastern Australia. First, we compared Bd infection prevalence and infection intensities within frog communities to reveal species-specific infection patterns. Then, we analyzed mark-recapture data of M. fleayi to estimate the impact of Bd infection intensity on apparent mortality rates and Bd infection dynamics. We found that M. fleayi had lower infection intensities than sympatric frogs across the three sites, and cleared infections at higher rates than they gained infections throughout the study period. By incorporating time-varying individual infection intensities, we show that healthy M. fleayi populations persist despite increased apparent mortality associated with infrequent high Bd loads. Infection dynamics were influenced by environmental conditions, with Bd prevalence, infection intensity, and rates of gaining infection associated with lower temperatures and increased rainfall. However, mortality remained constant year-round despite these fluctuations in Bd infections, suggesting major mortality events did not occur over the study period. Together, our results demonstrate that while Bd is still a potential threat to recovered populations of M. fleayi, high rates of clearing infections and generally low average infection loads likely minimize mortality caused by Bd. Our results are consistent with pathogen resistance contributing to the coexistence of M. fleayi with endemic Bd. We emphasize the importance of incorporating infection intensity into disease models rather than infection status alone. Similar population and infection dynamics likely exist within other recovered amphibian-Bd systems around the globe, promising longer-term persistence in the face of endemic chytridiomycosis.

Do immune system changes at metamorphosis predict vulnerability to chytridiomycosis? An update.

Amphibians are among the vertebrate groups suffering great losses of biodiversity due to a variety of causes including diseases, such as chytridiomycosis (caused by the fungal pathogens Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis and B. salamandrivorans). The amphibian metamorphic period has been identified as being particularly vulnerable to chytridiomycosis, with dramatic physiological and immunological reorganisation likely contributing to this vulnerability. Here, we overview the processes behind these changes at metamorphosis and then perform a systematic literature review to capture the breadth of empirical research performed over the last two decades on the metamorphic immune response. We found that few studies focused specifically on the immune response during the peri-metamorphic stages of amphibian development and fewer still on the implications of their findings with respect to chytridiomycosis. We recommend future studies consider components of the immune system that are currently under-represented in the literature on amphibian metamorphosis, particularly pathogen recognition pathways. Although logistically challenging, we suggest varying the timing of exposure to Bd across metamorphosis to examine the relative importance of pathogen evasion, suppression or dysregulation of the immune system. We also suggest elucidating the underlying mechanisms of the increased susceptibility to chytridiomycosis at metamorphosis and the associated implications for population persistence. For species that overlap a distribution where Bd/Bsal are now endemic, we recommend a greater focus on management strategies that consider the important peri-metamorphic period.

Contemporary and historical selection in Tasmanian devils (Sarcophilus harrisii) support novel, polygenic response to transmissible cancer.

Tasmanian devils (Sarcophilus harrisii) are evolving in response to a unique transmissible cancer, devil facial tumour disease (DFTD), first described in 1996. Persistence of wild populations and the recent emergence of a second independently evolved transmissible cancer suggest that transmissible cancers may be a recurrent feature in devils. Here, we compared signatures of selection across temporal scales to determine whether genes or gene pathways under contemporary selection (six to eight generations) have also been subject to historical selection (65-85 Myr). First, we used targeted sequencing, RAD-capture, in approximately 2500 devils in six populations to identify genomic regions subject to rapid evolution. We documented genome-wide contemporary evolution, including 186 candidate genes related to cell cycling and immune response. Then we used a molecular evolution approach to identify historical positive selection in devils compared to other marsupials and found evidence of selection in 1773 genes. However, we found limited overlap across time scales, with only 16 shared candidate genes, and no overlap in enriched functional gene sets. Our results are consistent with a novel, multi-locus evolutionary response of devils to DFTD. Our results can inform conservation by identifying high priority targets for genetic monitoring and guiding maintenance of adaptive potential in managed populations.

Knowledge Gaps in the Biology, Ecology, and Management of the Pacific Crown-of-Thorns Sea Star Acanthaster sp. on Australia's Great Barrier Reef.

AbstractCrown-of-thorns sea stars (Acanthaster sp.) are among the most studied coral reef organisms, owing to their propensity to undergo major population irruptions, which contribute to significant coral loss and reef degradation throughout the Indo-Pacific. However, there are still important knowledge gaps pertaining to the biology, ecology, and management of Acanthaster sp. Renewed efforts to advance understanding and management of Pacific crown-of-thorns sea stars (Acanthaster sp.) on Australia's Great Barrier Reef require explicit consideration of relevant and tractable knowledge gaps. Drawing on established horizon scanning methodologies, this study identified contemporary knowledge gaps by asking active and/or established crown-of-thorns sea star researchers to pose critical research questions that they believe should be addressed to improve the understanding and management of crown-of-thorns sea stars on the Great Barrier Reef. A total of 38 participants proposed 246 independent research questions, organized into 7 themes: feeding ecology, demography, distribution and abundance, predation, settlement, management, and environmental change. Questions were further assigned to 48 specific topics nested within the 7 themes. During this process, redundant questions were removed, which reduced the total number of distinct research questions to 172. Research questions posed were mostly related to themes of demography (46 questions) and management (48 questions). The dominant topics, meanwhile, were the incidence of population irruptions (16 questions), feeding ecology of larval sea stars (15 questions), effects of elevated water temperature on crown-of-thorns sea stars (13 questions), and predation on juveniles (12 questions). While the breadth of questions suggests that there is considerable research needed to improve understanding and management of crown-of-thorns sea stars on the Great Barrier Reef, the predominance of certain themes and topics suggests a major focus for new research while also providing a roadmap to guide future research efforts.

Mechanisms underlying host persistence following amphibian disease emergence determine appropriate management strategies.

Emerging infectious diseases have caused many species declines, changes in communities and even extinctions. There are also many species that persist following devastating declines due to disease. The broad mechanisms that enable host persistence following declines include evolution of resistance or tolerance, changes in immunity and behaviour, compensatory recruitment, pathogen attenuation, environmental refugia, density-dependent transmission and changes in community composition. Here we examine the case of chytridiomycosis, the most important wildlife disease of the past century. We review the full breadth of mechanisms allowing host persistence, and synthesise research on host, pathogen, environmental and community factors driving persistence following chytridiomycosis-related declines and overview the current evidence and the information required to support each mechanism. We found that for most species the mechanisms facilitating persistence have not been identified. We illustrate how the mechanisms that drive long-term host population dynamics determine the most effective conservation management strategies. Therefore, understanding mechanisms of host persistence is important because many species continue to be threatened by disease, some of which will require intervention. The conceptual framework we describe is broadly applicable to other novel disease systems.

Immunological Aspects of Chytridiomycosis.

Amphibians are currently the most threatened vertebrate class, with the disease chytridiomycosis being a major contributor to their global declines. Chytridiomycosis is a frequently fatal skin disease caused by the fungal pathogens Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) and Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal). The severity and extent of the impact of the infection caused by these pathogens across modern Amphibia are unprecedented in the history of vertebrate infectious diseases. The immune system of amphibians is thought to be largely similar to that of other jawed vertebrates, such as mammals. However, amphibian hosts are both ectothermic and water-dependent, which are characteristics favouring fungal proliferation. Although amphibians possess robust constitutive host defences, Bd/Bsal replicate within host cells once these defences have been breached. Intracellular fungal localisation may contribute to evasion of the induced innate immune response. Increasing evidence suggests that once the innate defences are surpassed, fungal virulence factors suppress the targeted adaptive immune responses whilst promoting an ineffectual inflammatory cascade, resulting in immunopathology and systemic metabolic disruption. Thus, although infections are contained within the integument, crucial homeostatic processes become compromised, leading to mortality. In this paper, we present an integrated synthesis of amphibian post-metamorphic immunological responses and the corresponding outcomes of infection with Bd, focusing on recent developments within the field and highlighting future directions.

Conserving adaptive potential: lessons from Tasmanian devils and their transmissible cancer.

Maintenance of adaptive genetic variation has long been a goal of management of natural populations, but only recently have genomic tools allowed identification of specific loci associated with fitness-related traits in species of conservation concern. This raises the possibility of managing for genetic variation directly relevant to specific threats, such as those due to climate change or emerging infectious disease. Tasmanian devils (Sarcophilus harrisii) face the threat of a transmissible cancer, devil facial tumor disease (DFTD), that has decimated wild populations and led to intensive management efforts. Recent discoveries from genomic and modeling studies reveal how natural devil populations are responding to DFTD, and can inform management of both captive and wild devil populations. Notably, recent studies have documented genetic variation for disease-related traits and rapid evolution in response to DFTD, as well as potential mechanisms for disease resistance such as immune response and tumor regression in wild devils. Recent models predict dynamic persistence of devils with or without DFTD under a variety of modeling scenarios, although at much lower population densities than before DFTD emerged, contrary to previous predictions of extinction. As a result, current management that focuses on captive breeding and release for maintaining genome-wide genetic diversity or demographic supplementation of populations could have negative consequences. Translocations of captive devils into wild populations evolving with DFTD can cause outbreeding depression and/or increases in the force of infection and thereby the severity of the epidemic, and we argue that these risks outweigh any benefits of demographic supplementation in wild populations. We also argue that genetic variation at loci associated with DFTD should be monitored in both captive and wild populations, and that as our understanding of DFTD-related genetic variation improves, considering genetic management approaches to target this variation is warranted in developing conservation strategies for Tasmanian devils.

Contemporary Demographic Reconstruction Methods Are Robust to Genome Assembly Quality: A Case Study in Tasmanian Devils.

Reconstructing species' demographic histories is a central focus of molecular ecology and evolution. Recently, an expanding suite of methods leveraging either the sequentially Markovian coalescent (SMC) or the site-frequency spectrum has been developed to reconstruct population size histories from genomic sequence data. However, few studies have investigated the robustness of these methods to genome assemblies of varying quality. In this study, we first present an improved genome assembly for the Tasmanian devil using the Chicago library method. Compared with the original reference genome, our new assembly reduces the number of scaffolds (from 35,975 to 10,010) and increases the scaffold N90 (from 0.101 to 2.164 Mb). Second, we assess the performance of four contemporary genomic methods for inferring population size history (PSMC, MSMC, SMC++, Stairway Plot), using the two devil genome assemblies as well as simulated, artificially fragmented genomes that approximate the hypothesized demographic history of Tasmanian devils. We demonstrate that each method is robust to assembly quality, producing similar estimates of Ne when simulated genomes were fragmented into up to 5,000 scaffolds. Overall, methods reliant on the SMC are most reliable between ∼300 generations before present (gbp) and 100 kgbp, whereas methods exclusively reliant on the site-frequency spectrum are most reliable between the present and 30 gbp. Our results suggest that when used in concert, genomic methods for reconstructing species' effective population size histories 1) can be applied to nonmodel organisms without highly contiguous reference genomes, and 2) are capable of detecting independently documented effects of historical geological events.

Individual and temporal variation in pathogen load predicts long-term impacts of an emerging infectious disease.

Emerging infectious diseases increasingly threaten wildlife populations. Most studies focus on managing short-term epidemic properties, such as controlling early outbreaks. Predicting long-term endemic characteristics with limited retrospective data is more challenging. We used individual-based modeling informed by individual variation in pathogen load and transmissibility to predict long-term impacts of a lethal, transmissible cancer on Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii) populations. For this, we employed approximate Bayesian computation to identify model scenarios that best matched known epidemiological and demographic system properties derived from 10 yr of data after disease emergence, enabling us to forecast future system dynamics. We show that the dramatic devil population declines observed thus far are likely attributable to transient dynamics (initial dynamics after disease emergence). Only 21% of matching scenarios led to devil extinction within 100 yr following devil facial tumor disease (DFTD) introduction, whereas DFTD faded out in 57% of simulations. In the remaining 22% of simulations, disease and host coexisted for at least 100 yr, usually with long-period oscillations. Our findings show that pathogen extirpation or host-pathogen coexistence are much more likely than the DFTD-induced devil extinction, with crucial management ramifications. Accounting for individual-level disease progression and the long-term outcome of devil-DFTD interactions at the population-level, our findings suggest that immediate management interventions are unlikely to be necessary to ensure the persistence of Tasmanian devil populations. This is because strong population declines of devils after disease emergence do not necessarily translate into long-term population declines at equilibria. Our modeling approach is widely applicable to other host-pathogen systems to predict disease impact beyond transient dynamics.

Review of the Amphibian Immune Response to Chytridiomycosis, and Future Directions.

The fungal skin disease, chytridiomycosis (caused by Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis and B. salamandrivorans), has caused amphibian declines and extinctions globally since its emergence. Characterizing the host immune response to chytridiomycosis has been a focus of study with the aim of disease mitigation. However, many aspects of the innate and adaptive arms of this response are still poorly understood, likely due to the wide range of species' responses to infection. In this paper we provide an overview of expected immunological responses (with inference based on amphibian and mammalian immunology), together with a synthesis of current knowledge about these responses for the amphibian-chytridiomycosis system. We structure our review around four key immune stages: (1) the naïve immunocompetent state, (2) immune defenses that are always present (constitutive defenses), (3) mechanisms for recognition of a pathogen threat and innate immune defenses, and (4) adaptive immune responses. We also evaluate the current hot topics of immunosuppression and immunopathology in chytridiomycosis, and discuss their respective roles in pathogenesis. Our synthesis reveals that susceptibility to chytridiomycosis is likely to be multifactorial. Susceptible amphibians appear to have ineffective constitutive and innate defenses, and a late-stage response characterized by immunopathology and Bd-induced suppression of lymphocyte responses. Overall, we identify substantial gaps in current knowledge, particularly concerning the entire innate immune response (mechanisms of initial pathogen detection and possible immunoevasion by Bd, degree of activation and efficacy of the innate immune response, the unexpected absence of innate leukocyte infiltration, and the cause and role of late-stage immunopathology in pathogenesis). There are also gaps concerning most of the adaptive immune system (the relative importance of B and T cell responses for pathogen clearance, the capacity and extent of immunological memory, and specific mechanisms of pathogen-induced immunosuppression). Improving our capacity for amphibian immunological research will require selection of an appropriate Bd-susceptible model species, the development of taxon-specific affinity reagents and cell lines for functional assays, and the application of a suite of conventional and emerging immunological methods. Despite current knowledge gaps, immunological research remains a promising avenue for amphibian conservation management.

Pathogen spillover during land conversion.

Pathogen spillover from wildlife to domestic animals and humans, and the reverse, has caused significant epidemics and pandemics worldwide. Although pathogen emergence has been linked to anthropogenic land conversion, a general framework to disentangle underlying processes is lacking. We develop a multi-host model for pathogen transmission between species inhabiting intact and converted habitat. Interspecies contacts and host populations vary with the proportion of land converted; enabling us to quantify infection risk across a changing landscape. In a range of scenarios, the highest spillover risk occurs at intermediate levels of habitat loss, whereas the largest, but rarest, epidemics occur at extremes of land conversion. This framework provides insights into the mechanisms driving disease emergence and spillover during land conversion. The finding that the risk of spillover is highest at intermediate levels of habitat loss provides important guidance for conservation and public health policy.

Global spread of helminth parasites at the human-domestic animal-wildlife interface.

Changes in species distributions open novel parasite transmission routes at the human-wildlife interface, yet the strength of biotic and biogeographical factors that prevent or facilitate parasite host shifting are not well understood. We investigated global patterns of helminth parasite (Nematoda, Cestoda, Trematoda) sharing between mammalian wildlife species and domestic mammal hosts (including humans) using >24,000 unique country-level records of host-parasite associations. We used hierarchical modelling and species trait data to determine possible drivers of the level of parasite sharing between wildlife species and either humans or domestic animal hosts. We found the diet of wildlife species to be a strong predictor of levels of helminth parasite sharing with humans and domestic animals, followed by a moderate effect of zoogeographical region and minor effects of species' habitat and climatic niches. Combining model predictions with the distribution and ecological profile data of wildlife species, we projected global risk maps that uncovered strikingly similar patterns of wildlife parasite sharing across geographical areas for the different domestic host species (including humans). These similarities are largely explained by the fact that widespread parasites are commonly recorded infecting several domestic species. If the dietary profile and position in the trophic chain of a wildlife species largely drives its level of helminth parasite sharing with humans/domestic animals, future range shifts of host species that result in novel trophic interactions may likely increase parasite host shifting and have important ramifications for human and animal health.

Infection of the fittest: devil facial tumour disease has greatest effect on individuals with highest reproductive output.

Emerging infectious diseases rarely affect all members of a population equally and determining how individuals' susceptibility to infection is related to other components of their fitness is critical to understanding disease impacts at a population level and for predicting evolutionary trajectories. We introduce a novel state-space model framework to investigate survival and fecundity of Tasmanian devils (Sarcophilus harrisii) affected by a transmissible cancer, devil facial tumour disease. We show that those devils that become host to tumours have otherwise greater fitness, with higher survival and fecundity rates prior to disease-induced death than non-host individuals that do not become infected, although high tumour loads lead to high mortality. Our finding that individuals with the greatest reproductive value are those most affected by the cancer demonstrates the need to quantify both survival and fecundity in context of disease progression for understanding the impact of disease on wildlife populations.

Null expectations for disease dynamics in shrinking habitat: dilution or amplification?

As biodiversity declines with anthropogenic land-use change, it is increasingly important to understand how changing biodiversity affects infectious disease risk. The dilution effect hypothesis, which points to decreases in biodiversity as critical to an increase in infection risk, has received considerable attention due to the allure of a win-win scenario for conservation and human well-being. Yet some empirical data suggest that the dilution effect is not a generalizable phenomenon. We explore the response of pathogen transmission dynamics to changes in biodiversity that are driven by habitat loss using an allometrically scaled multi-host model. With this model, we show that declining habitat, and thus declining biodiversity, can lead to either increasing or decreasing infectious-disease risk, measured as endemic prevalence. Whether larger habitats, and thus greater biodiversity, lead to a decrease (dilution effect) or increase (amplification effect) in infection prevalence depends upon the pathogen transmission mode and how host competence scales with body size. Dilution effects were detected for most frequency-transmitted pathogens and amplification effects were detected for density-dependent pathogens. Amplification effects were also observed over a particular range of habitat loss in frequency-dependent pathogens when we assumed that host competence was greatest in large-bodied species. By contrast, only amplification effects were observed for density-dependent pathogens; host competency only affected the magnitude of the effect. These models can be used to guide future empirical studies of biodiversity-disease relationships across gradients of habitat loss. The type of transmission, the relationship between host competence and community assembly, the identity of hosts contributing to transmission, and how transmission scales with area are essential factors to consider when elucidating the mechanisms driving disease risk in shrinking habitat.This article is part of the themed issue 'Conservation, biodiversity and infectious disease: scientific evidence and policy implications'.